Setting the Stage: Air Force

FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Some games a team can win by dominating one phase or the other. Jay Norvell knows this isn't one of those weeks.

When playing Air Force, all three phases are required to do their part. It's not a game where an amazing offensive performance can carry a team, and Colorado State hasn't had one of those yet, anyway. It's not a game where defense alone will do the trick. And field position feels more crucial.

The message is one Norvell has relayed to his team this week.

"We went back and watched all the games we played with them. You just have to understand the elements of the game, and it's just different when you're playing a different style of team," Norvell said. "They run the ball, they are very mindful of the clock, they go for a lot of fourth downs. People think of Air Force as a conservative team, but in a many ways, they really take a lot of risks. They take a lot of fourth-down strategic opportunities, they fake punt, they onside kick, and you have to understand those elements of the game.

"We've played them before, and you really have to play well in all three phases, and they've always been close games. Last year was triple overtime. It's just close games and you really have to pay attention all the way through the game, and you have to play well in all three phases."

The Falcons have won the past five meetings and lead the overall series 27-21-1. They also have won the past eight meetings at Falcon Stadium, 2002 being the last time the Rams beat Air Force at its home site. The past two games haven't been particularly close, with Air Force winning by at least two touchdowns.

Much of what Colorado State has been doing is trending upward. Three of the best total offensive games have come in the past three weeks, and the defense has started to recover from the Boise State letdown. Punter Paddy Turner is coming off his best performance, but even still, the Rams have items to clean up to play complete and complementary.

The two turnovers were damaging against Wyoming, giving more depth to what Norvell has been saying all year – the team's margin for error is very slim.

Special Attention

The special teams were hit and miss last week, with Tory Horton opening the scoring with a 72-yard punt return for a score, but later mishandling a punt which led to a Wyoming touchdown. Michael Boyle made two field goals – giving him six in a row – then missed the potential game winner.

For Turner, it marked the first week he's averaged better than 45 yards per attempt, pinning one inside the 20 and hitting a personal best 54 yarder. Inside the units, Norvell has felt the production has increased as the season has progressed.

"I take special teams pretty serious because it's a big part of the game," Peter Montini said. "Watching the first two games and then to where we are now, it's a big, big improvement. A lot of the starters, we want the guys who play a lot on offense and defense on the special teams, we want the best guys out there because it's a big part of the game."

Colorado State is the only punt unit in the conference without a touchback, and its difference between punt average and net punting is the best in the league. With Horton now returning punts, the Rams' average has moved to No. 2 in the conference.

Go Fourth

As Norvell noted, not every offensive set for Air Force is limited to three plays. Given the opportunity for a short fourth-down play, the Falcons are rather adept at not only taking the risk, but making it pay off.

The Falcons rank third nationally in fourth-down conversions, picking them up at an 82.4-percent clip. Overall, they are 14-of-17 on the year. In the grand scheme of things, the total is not exactly a substantial number, and there are other teams in the league going for it more often than the Falcons.

Like Colorado State.

The Rams have gone for it on fourth down 30 times, tied for ninth nationally, but they only rank 106^th in conversions at 40 percent. For Norvell, it's about the analytics, as well as the scenario of the game.

"I think it's something that you have to really give a lot of thought to. We're big on percentages and our quarterback is throwing 70 percent, so there's a good chance he's going to complete pass," he said. "Those numbers go into it. Where you are on the field also goes into it, and when you get into different field goal ranges, if your kicker is really proficient from there, you may just kick it. There's a lot of things that go into it.

"A lot of analytics show you're better off trying to go for it to keep the ball than to give it back to the other team. Your possessions are critically important in this game. The way Air Force runs the football, the way they use the time of possession, you get very few opportunities offensively. You have to be efficient when you have the ball and score points when you have the ball."

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Michael Boyle

Tory Horton

Peter Montini

Paddy Turner

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